Cherry blossom in Japan

How the forecast works

Two different things get called the forecast. The Japan Meteorological Agency observes. Its offices watch a sample tree in each city and declare flowering on the first day that five or six blossoms are open on it, and full bloom on the first day that about 80 percent of the buds have opened. The agency also publishes each city's average dates. The predictions come from private weather companies.

Japan Meteorological Corporation forecasts the flowering and full bloom dates of about 1,000 viewing spots from Hokkaido to Kagoshima. For the 2026 season it issued 14 forecasts, the first on 18 December 2025 and the last on 23 April 2026. Its first forecasts for 2025 and 2024 came on 9 and 10 January. The Japan Weather Association publishes its own on tenki.jp, and the national tourism organization builds its English forecast page on that one. No 2027 forecast was out when this page was checked on 13 October 2026.

All of them track one variety, the Somei Yoshino, the most common cherry tree in Japan. Its buds form the summer before, lie dormant through the cold and then grow at a pace set by spring temperatures, which is why the corporation revises its dates again and again as the weather comes in. Treat a January forecast as a window of a week or more, and look again two weeks before you fly.

When the season starts, read Japan Meteorological Corporation's forecast or JNTO's forecast page. The agency's own flowering status page is updated three times a day from December to June.

When the trees usually flower

The agency's averages for 1991 to 2020 put flowering in Tokyo on 24 March and full bloom on 31 March. Kyoto follows on 26 March and 4 April, and Osaka on 27 March and 4 April. In all three, full bloom comes seven to nine days after the first flowers.

An average hides the spread. Tokyo flowered on 14 March in 2021 and 2023, on 29 March in 2024, on 24 March in 2025 and on 19 March in 2026. Full bloom ranged from 22 March to 4 April over the same years. A fixed week booked a year ahead can miss on either side.

From there the bloom moves north. Average flowering is 8 April in Sendai, 22 April in Aomori and 1 May in Sapporo, where full bloom follows on 6 May. In 2026 the north ran early: Aomori flowered on 13 April and Sapporo on 18 April.

Where to see it

In Tokyo, Chidorigafuchi is a moat lined by a 700-meter greenway with about 230 cherry trees, a five-minute walk from Kudanshita or Hanzomon subway stations. The ward's boat pier rents rowboats on the moat: ¥800 for 30 minutes during the blossom season and 500 yen the rest of the year.

Shinjuku Gyoen is the managed alternative. It charges ¥500, bans alcohol, and from 15 March is open from 9am to 5:30pm, with the gates closing at 6pm. It opens every day from 25 March to 24 April. In 2026 it required a timed e-ticket between 10am and 4pm on 28 and 29 March and on 4 and 5 April, and none before 10am. Check the garden's notices in March for the 2027 rule.

In Kyoto, the Philosopher's Path follows a canal below the eastern hills between Ginkaku-ji and Nyakuoji Bridge, under cherry trees that overhang it like a canopy. The city's tourism site also points to the weeping cherries: the big tree in Maruyama Park, which is lit at night, and those at Heian Jingu and Tenryu-ji.

If you arrive late, go to Hirosaki Park in Aomori prefecture: about 2,600 trees of 52 varieties around the castle, and a festival that runs from 16 April to 5 May in 2027. The organizers say they may move the dates to match the bloom. Entry to the inner castle grounds costs ¥320.

A picnic under the trees is the custom of the season in the public parks. Rules differ by park, and Shinjuku Gyoen's are the strictest of the places here: no alcohol, no drones and no musical instruments. Carry your trash out.

Where to stay

Book rooms you can cancel, because the dates will move after you book. In Tokyo, Asakusa is beside the Sumida River, and Shinjuku is a walk from Shinjuku Gyoen, which matters for the 9am opening.

In Kyoto, stay on the eastern side of the city for an early walk on the Philosopher's Path. If Kyoto is full, Umeda in Osaka has direct Hankyu trains to Karasuma and Kyoto-kawaramachi in the center of Kyoto. For the order of Tokyo and Kyoto on a first trip, see the first-timer's loop.

If you miss the peak

Missing full bloom in Tokyo is common enough to plan for, and the fix is distance. In an average year Sendai flowers 15 days after Tokyo, Aomori 29 days after and Sapporo 38 days after. A rail trip north in April follows the bloom. Tohoku by local train runs from Sendai to Aomori and stops in Hirosaki.

Arriving early is the harder case, because going south does not help. The averages for Fukuoka and Kagoshima, 22 and 26 March, are within two days of Tokyo's. Wait instead. Flowering to full bloom takes about a week, so trees that have just opened when you land will be at their best before a ten-day trip ends.

Mistakes to avoid

The first is fixing every night a year ahead around the average date. Tokyo's flowering has moved across 15 days in six years. Keep two or three nights unassigned between Tokyo and Kyoto, and place them when the March forecasts settle.

The second is a late start. Shinjuku Gyoen opens at 9am and asked for no ticket before 10am on its reservation days in 2026. Go early, on a weekday if you can, and keep the middle of the day for something indoors.

The third is packing for one kind of weather. The spring packing list is built around layers for cool mornings and warm afternoons.

Skip if your dates cannot move and bare branches or fallen petals would spoil the trip. Tokyo's flowering date has ranged from 14 to 29 March since 2021.